Libro: The Unanchored Central Banker: Demography, Fiscal Instability, and an Erosion of the Central Bank's Inflation-Fighting Ability

Through little fault of their own, central banks face an erosion of their ability to fight inflation single-mindedly as they have done in the past.

In this sequel to their first book, ‘The Great Demographic Reversal’, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart argue that real interest rates will rise because increasingly ageing societies will create a persistent and still-underappreciated deterioration in the government’s fiscal position.

Could AI offset demographic headwinds? Possibly, but AI is unlike technological shocks of the past, and history suggests innovations tend to lead to net gains in employment, especially in the medium term. Similarly, China could generate uncertain near-term effects, but is unlikely to be a disinflationary force in the medium term.

The net outcome for monetary policy is not encouraging. Fighting inflation in highly indebted economies can lead to financial instability in the near term, or (ironically) more inflation in the future. The glory days of central banks, the authors argue, may be behind us.